September 14, 2017

Gloster Ltd. Easy Double Money In Medium Term l Investment Review

Gloster Ltd. | CMP Rs. 638 | M Cap Rs. 625 Cr | 52 W H/L 624/320

This is only listed firm, very old and established as well as highly profitable in jute mfg segment. Consistently growing its topline and constantly maintaining its bottomline.
For an investor with 3 years view, it can delivery 100% kind of return.

Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 119.4 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 133.4 Cr, YoY Rs. 112.2 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 17.2 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 7.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 14.1 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 14.4%, QoQ 5.9%, YoY 12.6%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 12.4 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 6 Cr, YoY Rs. 11.4 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 11.9.
 
Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
This is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give everytime.
Research in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due to news and developments etc.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.


Saurashtra Cement Ltd. Investment Review l Results Update

Saurashtra Cement Ltd. | CMP Rs. 72 | M Cap Rs. 498 Cr | 52 W H/L 85/52
Results update and recommendation.
Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 139.1 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 107.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 143.3 Cr
EBIDTA came at Rs. 29.3 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 1.4 Cr, YoY Rs. 30.5 Cr
EBITDA Margin came at 21%, QoQ 1.3%, YoY 21.3%
Adj. PAT came at Rs. 22.8 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 0.5 Cr, YoY Rs. 21.6 Cr
Quarter EPS is Rs. 3.3.

We believe this stock has good potential for upside and is relatively undervalued among the cement space.
It belongs to very old and prestigious Mehta Group, and has brands like Hathi Cement, and Sidhee Cement which is also listed.

Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
This is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give everytime.
Research in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due to news and developments etc.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.


Shamaroo Entertainment - Long - Medium Term Brief Investment Review

Shamaroo Entertainment
Company is into film aggregation and monetisation through tradition media and New media like You Tube with New Media revenue growing over 35% share of revenue of 24%. Company has increase its investment in films though increase in Inventory of longer duration right.
Company came out with inline number in Q1 post impact of Demonetisation in previous 2 quarter. In Q1 again inventory increased by 75cr but managment clearified that this Inventory is mainly of regular business and not increase in Investment as such will correct over coming quarters. Company was into increasing its Investment portfolio in films since last 3-4 years and was expected to come out of its Investment phase in the current year which will help it to generate free cashflow.

Managment has given guidance of FY 18 closing inventory to be lower than FY17 Inventory which indicate Investment phase is over and company can start generating free cash flow which can rerate the stock. Stock is trading at PE of 12x. Outlook Positive.
We recommend buy for medium and long term as well. And expect at least 100% return in 1-3 years.

Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
This is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give everytime.
Research in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due to news and developments etc.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.


August 30, 2017

HSBC predicts 6% India GDP for April-June Quarter 2017

India’s economic growth is likely to remain “soft” and the GDP is expected to grow by 6 per cent in April-June, down from 6.1 per cent in the preceding quarter, says an HSBC report.
According to global financial services major, higher private consumption and government spending is likely to be “dulled” by weak investment and exports growth over the quarter.
“Repercussions of an early budget and the newly implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates, receipts and rebates are likely to distort upcoming GDP readings,” it said.

The report said the Gross Value Added (GVA) may be a more reliable measure of economic activity over the next few quarters amidst policy changes like the demonetisation episode (8th November 2016) followed by GST implementation (1st July 2017).
“Sandwiched between demonetisation, GST and other smaller policy changes, we recommend relying more on GVA as a measure of economic growth rather than GDP,” it said.

“We expect GVA growth for the first quarter of this fiscal to come in at an improved but still soft 6.2 per cent, and GDP a tad lower at 6 per cent,” HSBC said in a research note.
The report said the Union budget was released on February 1, about a month in advance compared to previous years. This allowed for faster approvals and front loading of certain expenditure, particularly subsidies.
Besides, until the new system settles down, the GST tax regime could lead to uncertainties in tax collections, it added.
“We expect first quarter GVA growth to recover to 6.2 per cent y-o-y, from 5.6 per cent in the demonetisation hit in the previous quarter,” it said adding despite the improvement, growth is likely to remain soft. In fact growth has been falling singularly since mid-2016.
On the production side, agriculture and trade services are likely to be strong and manufacturing is likely to improve in line with IIP data. However, financial services is expected to remain depressed, it added.


Posted on 7:36:00 PM | Categories:

August 19, 2017

10 Useful Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

10 Useful Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
1.    There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
2.    The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among professionals.
3.    I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.
4.    They say you can never go poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market. Where I should have made twenty thousand I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.

5.    Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
6.    A man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street…nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
7.    After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was the sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
8.    Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it…But being wrong—not taking the loss—that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
9.    Prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest.
10. The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you hope that every day will be the last day—and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope—the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out—too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts…Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope.

Tom Basso Best Quotes For Traders From Book 'THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS'

Tom Basso Best Quotes For Traders From Book 'THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS'

Tom went from trading his own money, to forming TrendStat and managing other peoples money. At the peak of his career, TrendStat managed $600million dollars of capital.
Tom is one of best traders featured from Market Wizards on the psychology of trading. Here are favorite quotes from his interview in this book.

         “I realized that every time I had a loss, I needed to learn something from the experience and view the loss as tuition at the College of Trading. As long as you learn something from a loss, it’s not really a loss.” – Tom Basso
“When your account has these massive swings up and down, there’s a tendency to feel a rush when the market is going your way and devastation when it’s going against you. These emotions do absolutely nothing to make you a good trader. It’s far better to keep the equity swings manageable and strive for a sense of balance each day, no matter what happens.” – Tom Basso
“I probably do more mental exercises now than I ever did. Each morning while I’m driving to work, I make a conscious effort to relax. I mentally rehearse any conflict that might happen that day. The process of mentally organizing and relaxing before I get to work helps me start my day in a very positive frame of mind.” – Tom Basso
“Also, it helps if you view your life as a movie. If you go to a video store and rent a horror movie, you’re voluntarily letting yourself be horrified, and it’s not stressful because deep down you know it’s just a movie. What if you had the same attitude about life?” – Tom Basso
“I think investment psychology is by far the most important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where you buy and sell.” – Tom Basso


TRIBHOVANDAS BHIMJI ZAVERI LTD. Stock Trading Call - Investment Review Buy

TRIBHOVANDAS BHIMJI ZAVERI LTD. Stock  Trading Call - Investment Review Buy

Commentary:
This is one of the very old and premium brands in jewellery market. They had been making losses. We can not compare the topline and bottomline with its peers such as PC Jewellers, as TBZ has been on the backfoot regarding expansion. But the good news is that it has turned around and started making profits from break even for many years. The main rerating point for all the organized players in this sector is the demonetization. We have already seen that for the bigger players like Titan, PC Jewellers and others. The dominant presence in bigger market like Mumbai is also a plus for the company.


Technical Picture:
The stock crossed 100 DMA recently after many years and about to cross 200 DMA on weekly charts after which it will give faster surge. The 5% circuit filter limit is limiting the fast rise of the stock. The stock is ready to shoot up 50pc plus in a very short span of time. After listing it briefly made lifetime high of 300 and languishing since then. It has been clearly doing base building during 2016-17 and ready to rise and probably make new high as well.

Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
This is only a brief of a full report. It is possible, that we have already given this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give everytime.
Research in stock market, about companies is subject to change on day to day basis due to news and developments etc.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.


FORTIS HEALTHCARE LTD. Stock Futures, Options, Trading Call - Investment Review Short Sell - Exit

FORTIS HEALTHCARE LTD. Stock Futures, Options, Trading Call - Investment Review Short Sell - Exit 
19/08/2017

Commentary:
We have been bearish for most of the past year on this scrip. The company has been in news for all the wrong reasons since last few months with legal issues and growth problems. The topline is growing but the profitability is suffering which we believe is the problem of all companies in the sector. With government cracking down on the profit margins of healthcare sector by variety of steps, we believe an entire rerating of companies such as Fortis will be done by market just like the pharma sector. The company stock price is very expensive at the current price and has potential to crash to 50 Rs. We are extremely bearish and this can be one of our many of windfall trading opportunity for futures short sellers and put call traders. Also, investors can offload and save their capital from erosion.
Technical Picture:
The stock surged to 180 levels, which was its lifetime high of 2010 bull market. But it could not sustain there and has been trading about sideways since more than a year now. We believe it has broker the range on the downside, by closing below 160 on monthly chart and about to break 100 DMA on the same. It has already broker 100 and 200 DMA on weekly and daily charts. We believe to short on every rise and make huge money in futures and options in such sureshot calls. To get the strategy and levels, and entry, exit you can contact us.
  
Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
It is possible, that we have already given this stock recommendation to our clients, or will give it in future, and may exit/reenter as per deem fit to us, updates of which are not possible to give everytime.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.


August 12, 2017

Real Estate Sector India 2017 2018 Outlook Affirmative With Steep Investments On The Back Of Macro Economic Changes

Real Estate Sector India 2017 2018 Outlook Affirmative With Steep Investments On The Back Of Macro Economic Changes
A favourable regulatory environment coupled with attractive asset valuations has enhanced investor confidence by changing the perception of Indian realty in the global arena. Interest from offshore equity investors, large Indian corporates and high net worth individuals (HNIs) are likely to bring in investments worth USD 7 billion into the sector this year, says a report.

While office and residential are expected to remain traditional drivers for the industry; alternate sectors, such as retail and warehousing will also are also likely to be in the forefront, says a report by CBRE titled Indian Real Estate in 2017 and Beyond released by CREDAI at its 17th Annual International Convention, NATCON 2017 in London.
The report encapsulates the major policy related disruptions by Government of India which are challenging the traditional operating environment by setting a new foundation for change. According to the report, regulatory measures such as RERA, GST and REITs are aimed at improving transparency in the sector, increasing the share of organised segment and enhancing the overall investor sentiment. This will help in catalysing ease of doing business in the country while supporting corporate entities entering or expanding their footprint in India.
It anticipates that breakthrough disruptions – regulation, finance, customers and technology are likely to have positive insinuations on the sector and will facilitate a new ecosystem which will be more conducive.
With RERA, GST and I-REITs becoming a reality in 2017, the Government has taken a lead in challenging the operating fabric with regulatory disruptors and making affordable housing the growth catalyst in the residential segment, it says.
The report also looks at the changing customer preferences in office, retail, residential and warehousing space. For instance, the dynamics in office spaces are being disrupted with the entry of Millennials – over, two-thirds of the Indian Millennials feel the quality of office design impacts their productivity to a large extent.
In the warehousing segment – entry of international players is ensuring that better and larger warehouses emerge in key markets; in the residential segment - customers will have a say in operations with effective grievance redressal. Customer experience has also become at the heart of retail’s strategy which is fuelling future trends like customisation and hyper customisation.
As per the survey, more than 40 percent of retailers in cities such as Noida, Gurgaon, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata etc. preferred locating in the malls, as they serve as experience destinations, as per the report.
“The government’s aggressive push to formalize, regulate and encourage investment to the sector with a slew of measures like RERA, REITs is consolidating India’s position on the global map. We believe that these disruptions and encouraging trends will definitely manifest a more exciting future which will be full of possibilities and opportunities for Indian real-estate,” says Jaxay Shah, president, CREDAI National.

“In this burgeoning Indian economy, the one sector that has emerged from the restraints of the past is real estate. The sector in India is one of the key contributors and mainstays for India’s development as a nation. Real estate in India continues to be in a dynamic phase and the pace at which the four cornerstones – regulation, finance, customers and technology are evolving, a more than incremental transformation in the sector is expected in the coming years. In this report we have dwelled on how a strong foundation for this change has already been laid with a conducive operating environment, the future growth of the sector will be determined by many other factors,” says Anshuman Magazine, chairman, India & South East Asia, CBRE.

August 02, 2017

SUBEX LTD. Buy/Sell/Hold? Mid - Long Term View 2 AUGUST 2017 For Trading/Investing Positional Funda-Technical Analysis Recommendation

SUBEX LTD.
Recommendation: Strong Buy
View : MID TERM 
Strategy : TURN AROUND STORY. NOT FOR LONG TERM
CMP : bse cash 9.50

Commentary:
This stock was enjoying 700 level highs in the bubble top of 2008, then the markets crashed so do the company profits. Since it is trading at around 20-40 levels before finding bottom at 10 Rs. levels.
The company has huge equity to start with as its problems. The company is into IT support services. This segment is not outdated and a lot of scope and a growing segment is not to doubt. The company narrowed its losses to 10 cr from 130 cr in previous year. Recently Anil Singhvi, a very reputed activist investor of Ican Investment Advisors was appointed as non-executive chairman of the firm which is a very very big positive. 
This is a classic penny stock and turnaround counter for the class of investors.
We believe 5-10 multiple type of retuns in next 1-3 years with limited downside.

Disclaimer:
Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

July 24, 2017

News You Can Use This Week 24 July 2017

News You Can Use This Week

The data this week is expected to confirm what many investors have come to assume.  The US economy accelerated in Q2.   The eurozone economy is enjoying steady growth, but the momentum appears to be slowing.  The UK economy was unable to recover much after a soft Q1.  The Japanese economy is still not generating price pressures, but growth, led by the export/industrial production capex, is also fueling somewhat better consumption.  

The Federal Reserve meeting is not live in the sense that anyone expects a change in the policy of any kind.  For reasons beyond our ken, the Federal Reserve insists on making changes only at the half of the FOMC meetings which are followed by a press conference. Since there are several workarounds, including, as we have suggested,  holding press conferences after every meeting, which the ECB and BOJ already do, for example.  
In any event, the market understands full well where the Fed is.   It is getting close to allowing its balance sheet to begin shrinking.  After raising rates in March and June, officials are not ready to go again:  Not in July and not September.  December is a closer call.   The softer price pressures rather than, the weaker growth impulses become the focal point in Q2.  It will take a few months of data to assuage these concerns.  The main argument that what the headwind on prices is transitory seems to assume that decline in prices is narrow.  Breadth indicators of price changes, therefore, be more important than usual in the current context.  Sure enough, the diffusion indicators for the CPI were narrow, until the recent June reading.  
When the balance sheet issue was being discussed, NY Fed President Dudley suggested that the central bank may have a brief pause in its efforts to normalize the Fed funds target rate around the time that it decides to begin allowing the balance sheet to shrink.  This still seems the most likely scenario. Given the apparent consensus to begin not reinvesting in full the proceeds from maturing issues sooner rather than later, the September FOMC meeting is a compelling venue to make such an announcement.  Deferring a rate decision until the December meeting, by which time the inflation picture may clarify, seems prudent.  
One of the consequences of this scenario is that it would allow Fed officials to talk more about why the core inflation measures have weakened.  An FOMC statement that does not show more puzzlement, if not a concern, risks a more dramatic reaction a couple of days later when the first estimate of Q2 GDP is reported.  The GDP price deflator is expected to slow to 1.3% from 1.9%, and, potentially of greater importance; the core PCE deflator may slow more dramatically–to below 1% from 2.0% in Q1.  At the same time, these GDP figures are reported, the US will release its Q2 estimate for Employment Cost Index, a broader measure of labor costs (includes wages and benefits), which is also expected to show no acceleration in what is understood to be a key driver of core inflation.  
US earnings season kicks into high gear with nearly 20% of the S&P 500 reporting in the week ahead.  Among the highlights include Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet, Caterpillar, GM, and Chipotle. With about a third already reporting, it appears that earnings growth is on track for around a 10% pace.  Fund managers who push back against claims that the market is overvalued point to the strong earnings growth underpinning prices.   Despite investors’ preference for European shares over the US, we note that the S&P 500 has begun outperforming the Dow Jones Stoxx 600–5.75% over the past three months.  
Meanwhile, the summer drama will continue in Washington, as President Trump’s son, son-in-law and former campaign manager are set to testify before Senate committees next week.   News that Exxon was fined $2 mln last week for violating sanctions against Russia, while Secretary of State Tillerson was the CEO is an additional distraction from the economic agenda that is beginning to press.  Leaving aside health care reform, the infrastructure initiative, and tax reform, the constraints of the debt ceiling are already evident in the T-bill market, and the FY2018 fiscal year begins in a little more than two months.  
ECB President Draghi signaled that central bank would reconsider policy at the September meeting when officials return from summer holidays, and new staff forecasts will be available. Draghi’s suggestion that the market over-interpreted his “reflation” comment at the Sintra conference implies that the ECB may have been somewhat surprised by the market’s reaction.  Nevertheless, Draghi showed barely any concern about the rise in European interest rates and the euro’s appreciation.  
Money supply growth (M3) is expected to have expanded at a steady pace of 5% over the past year. through June. The Bank Lending Survey, released on July 18, confirmed that improvement in credit conditions.  Lending is slowly improving, and there has been a small pickup in demand from non-financial businesses.  The flash PMI for the eurozone will also be released.  It is expected to soften slightly. 
Country-data may be more interesting than the aggregate data.  In particular, Germany, France, and Spain offer preliminary looks at July inflation.  On a monthly basis, consumer prices may have eased, but the year-over-year rates are expected to be little changed at 1.4%, 0.8%, and 1.6% respectively.  Only the German reading is changed from the June pace and by 0.1%  at that.   
France and Spain also report early estimates of Q2 GDP.  A 0.5% quarterly expansion in France would lift the year-over-year rate to 1.6% from 1.1%, which would be the quickest pace since Q3 11. Spain’s economic growth remains among the strongest in the OECD.  A 0.9% Q2 expansion would translate to a little more than a 3% year-over-year pace.  
The German 10-year Bund yield will begin the new week carrying over a six-day decline.  The yield has returned to the breakout level of 50 bp.  The technical indicators of the September 10-year Bund futures contract warn of additional gains (lower yields) in the period ahead.  We suspect there is potential toward 40 bp.  
The UK reports Q2 GDP.  It is expected to remain lackluster.  After a 0.2% pace in Q1, the British economy may have expanded by 0.3% in Q2.  Still, the year-over-year pace would still slow from 2.0% in Q1 to 1.7%.   A weak US dollar environment may conceal sterling’s underlying weakness.  Since the middle of the month, it has depreciated two percent on a trade-weighted basis.  The euro has returned to the GBP0.9000 area, having had finished Q1 below GBP0.8500.  Sterling also appears to be rolling over against the yen.  It was turned back from JPY148 around the middle of the month, which is where turned from in May as well.  Sterling fell every day last week against the yen, and technical potential extends toward JPY144.  
The market will likely learn very little from Japan next week.  Headline inflation and the core rate, which excludes fresh food, likely remained unchanged in June at 0.4%.   However, excluding fresh food and energy, the rate may have dipped to -0.1% from zero.  Contrary to the claims, the truly stable price environment does not necessarily preclude consumption.  In fact, if the consensus is right, overall household spending will turn positive for the first time since in 16 months. Meanwhile, the labor market remains tight.  The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the jobs-to-applicant ratio may edge higher.  
Lower yields would seem to favor the yen playing some catch-up.  The dollar fell 0.7% against the yen before the weekend, its largest single-day decline since early June.  There is scope for a third consecutive week of a little more than 1% fall, which would take the dollar toward JPY110.  The euro may have reversed lower against the yen before the weekend after having found offers in front of the high seen earlier this month.  

OPEC’s monitoring committee meets in Russia at the beginning of the week.   Private estimates point to increased  OPEC output, not all of which is coming from Libya and Nigeria, which were excluded from the quotas.   Efforts to coax them into capping output seem to have fallen on fallow fields.   Ecuador’s decision to drop out of the quota system, though not significant in terms, it is a timely reminder that the agreement to cut output is finite, fragile, and does not appear to be particularly effective.  

July 22, 2017

Tata Global Beverages Limited. Buy/Sell/Hold? Mid - Long Term View 22 JULY 2017 For Trading/Investing Positional Funda-Technical Analysis Recommendation

Tata Global Beverages Limited.
Recommendation: Strong Buy
View : Long Term
Strategy : ?
CMP : bse cash 172.

Commentary:
This is another recent recommendation from our research team from the Tata Group companies. This company is into brand businesses of tea, coffee and water. Some of you already know Tata tea brands and himalayan drinking water brand. The most interesting development for the company happened in last two years when it tied up with Starbucks and now. The joint venture reported 235 cr topline last year and yes it is making losses but decreasing losses every year with only 20 cr loss this year.Starbucks as we know is 'tha McDonalds' of coffee world and tata global beverages is set to gain massively in terms of revenue and bottomline from this jv in next 5-10 years apart from its slow growing tea, coffee, water business. So, this was the 'starbucks angle'.
The market valuation revision angle.- The Indian stock markets has started to value FMCG firms, especially now after the GST era; very seriously and clearly above the average of last 20 years. This company was totally left out on that front. It was may be being a so called 'commodity heavy' company so far and now we beileve with the strong financials, tata group name and the lack of strong established company stocks, mutual funds will rush to increase their stake in such firms. 
We like this revaluation angle more than any other angle.
On the technical front, clearly the stock has not been a 'blockbuster' in any sense.
It risen almost zero percent in last 5 years. It made strong base at 100 which is not to be broken unless market crash comes. It made another 120 strong support, and now trying to cross its lifetime high of above 170 third time, after failing to do so in 2013, and 2014.
With Mistry saga behind the Tatas, and a high performing man of excellent background at leadership of the group we believe this stock is set to soar and cross the high and once this is done, we believe it will open the sky for the stock to double in 1-2 years only.
Also, TGB holds about 57% of Tata Coffee, a listed firm which amounts to about 1400 cr Rs. stake at current price of the stock.
We do not like the commodity business personally, neither the tea, coffee plantations etc. But the above angles with Tata brands name on it. Apart from it, there is a lot of space in many FMCG products segment especially the tea, coffee space to have many more brands to become bigger apart from the present scenario where the top slots are already occupied by the MNCs. On the Price/Earnings ratio front also, it is not unfair, if the firm starts commanding a PE of 20 plus in a bull market.

Disclaimer:
Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary; you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Join one of our services for getting regular trading calls in all segments like equity stock cash intraday, positional, index options, index futures, stock futures, stock options and intraday and positional in all of the segments with high accurate less calls with small stoploss and bigger target with personalized service for tracking your profits/losses with us, that’s what we call assured profit services.
Disclaimer: We or our clients may be holding positions in one or more or all of the stocks recommended by us.
Go check out our site for details or email us or call us for detailed discussion.

July 20, 2017

W. D. GANN’S 24 TIMELESS STOCK TRADING RULES

     
    1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade.
3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.
5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts and rules.
6. When in doubt, get out and don’t get in when in doubt.
7. Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.
8. Equal distribution of risk. Trade in two or three different commodities if possible. Avoid tying up all your capital in any one commodity.
9. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price.
10. Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
11. Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into a surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of panic.
12. Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit.
13. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.
14. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
19. Never buy just because the price of a commodity is low or sell short just because the price is high.
20. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the commodity is very active and has crossed resistance levels before buying more, and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.
21. Select the commodities that show strong uptrend to pyramid on the buying side and the ones that show definite downtrend to sell short.
22. Never hedge. If you are long one commodity and it starts to go down, do not sell another commodity short to hedge it. Get out at the market: Take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
23. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason, or according to some definite rule; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.
24. Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period of profitable trades.