Oct 27, 2013

German Stock Market @ Lifetime High

Germany's benchmark DAX 30 stock-market index hit its highest level ever above 8900. It is close to cross 9000 mark.

It has made previous high at 8200 in 2007-08.
It is noticeable that at a time when most of European economies and global economy is far far from rosy type of shape, the Western equity markets are making new highs.
While economies such as China which is growing constantly have poor performing market. The Shanghai Composite Index of China made 6000+ level high in 2008 but crased to 1500 and since then trading around 2000 levels and only tried to reach as long as 3500 only. However, thanks to the index management of NSE and BSE guys, and the devaluation of rupee and the blessings of FII money SENSEX and NIFTY has been able to remain close to their lifetime highs for most of the last 5 and a half years. 
Now it is to be seen that in next few weeks, weather Indian markets are able to sing its bullish tune alongside the global markets and at least make a new high and sustain it, save the 'new bull market' rant for now.
YOU CAN READ 'WILL NIFTY MAKE A NEW HIGH OR NOT? CAN IT GO TO 6414, 7300 AND THEN 10000 LEVELS?' BELOW
http://meghainvestments.blogspot.in/2013/10/nifty-50-can-it-do-it-this-time-nifty.html

Oct 20, 2013

NIFTY 50! CAN IT DO IT THIS TIME? NIFTY CAN RISE TO 6414 THEN 7300 AND THEN CROSS 10000. Read interesting analysis on market movement over recent past

NIFTY 50! CAN IT DO IT THIS TIME? NIFTY CAN RISE TO 6414 THEN 7300 AND THEN CROSS 10000. Read interesting analysis on market movement over recent past

Nifty made a lifetime high on 31 January 2008.  Three years after it attempted to cross that and make new high on 30 November 2010, however it failed and then slumped to make a low of 4531.15 over the year 2011 on 30 December 2011.
After that, it again rise to the 6000 levels over the next year of 2012 and made high of 6111.80 on 31 January 2013.
The year 2013 was not full of surprises though in terms of market movement and news flow from domestic and international level. We are running into 10th month of the year 2013 now.
If you read our previous articles on market movements the markets had to make a high near old highs late to late by July this year and then cross it. But the so called bowl or multiple head and shoulder pattern is always haphazard. The market has lost its opportunity to rely on that pattern.
The market in monthly chart has formed a cup and handle pattern while on the quarterly chart also it is forming favorable set up.
Nifty has closed at 6200 which is merely 200 points short of the lifetime high. It is noticeable that market has risen steadily this time after a downside and rejected all the hypotheses that this is a pullback rally which should be sold into. However we should not forget that it was only in this august, merely 2 months back that market slipped to 5100 levels, which was its third consequent month of decline from 6200 plus levels again made just before 2 months in May 2013!
Our hypothesis in brief is clear, most inverse and simple multiple head and shoulder patterns which are spanned over the long term doesn’t result into exact breakout which happened in Nifty also (you can take another example of Piramal Enterprise Ltd stock among many other similar stock set ups). While a cup and handle like pattern is mostly responsible with struggle to give belated breakout in such set ups. Similar set up appears on Nifty as per our findings.
One interesting thing is also that Nifty has been trying to break its 2008 high (as now almost shameful how it has been unable to do so even after 5 years-while the so called doomed Europe and USA touches those levels and above) since the beginning of this year in January 2013. It has done so on about 3-4 times. And this is its 5th attempt running which is looking very promising as per the analysis.

According to Dow concepts, market was in range contraction mode from December 2012 to May 2013 and entered range expansion mode from June 2013 till date in October 2013. If market is to continue this run up with high boost then it has to cross 6414 level. Then next target will be 7300 in 12 months only without doubt which will guarantee a level of 10000 plus in Nifty over the span of this coming new bull market. But as said 6414 closing on weekly basis is necessary. Even if market falters after such condition is fulfilled. It shall regain its strength and follow its due course upward.
In case market doesn’t do likewise, it is likely that it will again slip in its last 5 years habit of range trading. It will try to go down to 5000 again. However, we do not see any doomsday scenario for Indian markets. So, ‘business as usual’ will again become the mantra for Indian markets if it slips again and feed in the declining prices of hundreds of stocks which are not at all giving sign of any bottom out, stocks of variety of universe across caps and sectors. This is a very depressing aspect. But we are right now looking at the picture the indices are showing and hell we know how strong the power of indices are to change the moves of stock prices.
If the market runs as per our forecast, we will remain with the leaders in the first phase of the run up that is till it has settled around 6500 levels. We also expect a faltering in trend to give room to profit booking rally which will be followed by strong up move days, so only buy on dip strategy should be adopted on such occasions.
To add fundamental note we will remain limited in saying that Indian economy continue to remain weak with no (repeat no) signs of improvement or bottoming out of GDP, IIP growth, or CAD (current account deficit) or domestic money supply and liquidity situation emanating from any clarity on interest rate scenario. Market will be driven due to further decline and then strengthening of rupee against dollar which will be result in eventual only decline over the at least next 12 months. Always remember market doesn’t go up because rupee strengthened against dollar or go down because rupee weaken. This is nothing but mere oversimplification. While NSE and BSE will continue to do good job at manipulating the indices and continue to remove stocks which are weak or become weak if any over the next few months. FII will pump more money to take immediate benefit of declined rupee…at every decline. The god of all market is US markets. Indian markets are being supported by the rise in equity market of USA and major fundamental or macroeconomic reason for any present or near future rise remain that. But how the relation and correlation pan out over the next 12 month will remain to be seen. More commentary for members.
So what to do if Nifty is not able to achieve the feat. We believe that market at Indices level do not have tendency to consolidate for many months and never for years (however some are exception such as shanghai composite index). So, that said, market will go down if they are not going up and the abovementioned range trading behavior will likely continue for as long as it can. In such a condition it will even make the 2014 general elections a non-event!
The point is that one should continue to short the stocks that are in down trend and continue to buy stocks and sectors which are in uptrend. Only telecom is one such sector which is trying to shrug off its bad memories and start new life i.e. most probably has bottomed out and start going up, consistently. Traders at last pray that market movement are followed and accompanied by meaningful volatility in individual stocks, weather up or down, any side.
MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH® publishes articles on market, investing and trading regularly.
You can send in your comments on info@meghainvestments.com
Please note that our research is priorities for our paid members and then distributed in public domain. Also, full articles are available to members only.
Technical analysis and stock movements as well recommendations are subject to changes in market condition and news flow of company and the economy. So please remain updated with us. Or contact us directly in case of any query oninfo@meghainvestments.com
WE RECOMMEND YOU READ THIS ARTICLE ALONGSIDE OUR PREVIOUS ARTICLES ON OUR BLOG www.meghainvestments.blogspot.in
You can visit our site www.meghainvestments.com for exploring our services for investors and traders in Indian stock market.


Oct 17, 2013

Education for Investors and Traders for Indian Stock Market

Emphasis on Education:
We have added a new dimension to our work. Yes, that is investors and traders awareness, education and learning. You have been sold tips and advice but never told even once rightly ‘how to invest wisely?’ or ‘how to trade smartly?’ or even the ‘basic financial planning rules’.

We will not just guide you to make money by buying and selling but help you improve your knowledge which will become a part of your wisdom for your entire life.
Education will be provided via webinar, personal phone call discussion, soft copy email files/e-books, spot seminars, group discussion, phone conference calls, and one-to-one discussion apart from the day to day interaction with your own relationship executive at the our premises during the course of your trading.

EDUCATION FOR INVESTORS:
Investors need education more than knowledge. Not all can gather wisdom to become an astronaut, or rocket scientist yet everybody can know the basics of how a space mission works and what to do in space and what not to do to live and die. Similarly, ‘education’ is necessary to find out what is market, what is investing, why invest, why invest in stocks, what to do, what not to do, how to select right advisor, how to reject wrong advisor, what question to ask to your advisor and so on. So, now you understand what we mean by investors ‘education’. Yeah!
You will find listing or our very very very important such articles prepared  by text book study, practical live testing, back testing, experience of world’s top successful investors, writing and teaching of world’s top successful investors, and by advisory, portfolio management and personal experience of investing of our in house and freelance fundamental research team.
Education will be provided via webinar, personal phone call discussion, soft copy email files/e-books, spot seminars, group discussion, phone conference calls, and one-to-one discussion apart from the day to day interaction with your own relationship executive at the during the course of your trading about the various topics here.
Please find below the articles. Some have links to our other investors and traders portal, while some articles are provided here below only, while some links will open in this very website. We have tried to provide them in ascending order of ‘knowledge’ and investor needs.
So, go on, be a tiger!
Investor Education is all about how to benefit from investment opportunities without falling into pitfalls. Understanding the right approach/orientation/mindset and adhere to it. Understanding the wrong approach/orientation/mindset and discard it or stay away from it.

Investors don't need to learn ratio analysis, that's our work. But they must know what a ratio analysis is. Investors education doesn't mean teaching you to analyse stock market. It means teaching you and making you aware about the opportunities that markets offer. This will enable you to understand the crucial 'Dos' and 'Don't' of the market which everyone must know. It means developing the right healthy approach towards investing. When you go on board a flight, you don't fly yourself, you are not supposed to fly the plane because you want to reach somewhere, no. But you need to know the manual for safeguarding, you are advised about the rules to be adhered and guidelines. Suppose, if you panic due to noise created by take off or become fearful and panic when you look out from your window from ten thousand feet, you get crazy and faint or puke. Suppose, you think you can ride the plane and suppose, you somehow find the way to cockpit and start tackling the gears! Because you think you know about 'stuff'. Suppose, what if you are carrying a pistol full of bullets? Suppose, it is a small charter you are boarding or you are alone in it.  These example seems extreme. But it is not. It is completely fitting. Suppose, you are not informed about the oxygen mask and a disaster strikes and the oxygen level drops. You are in dire trouble then.
Now, come out of the plane. Suppose, the plane is 'market' or 'investing' or 'trading'. You can co-relate and give analogy. Getting on board with pistol bullets means you are investing with emotions, you get cheerful and optimistic when market rise and blue channel and yellow papers say so, and you get sad or panic when the market falls. You don't know where the oxygen mask is in time of extreme need on board is similar to not knowing what to do in a falling market or when your stock is plunging and portfolio value starts bleeding. If you have education/awareness/understanding/right orientation/right approach/Do's and Don'ts in terms of different situation and important issues of markets/trading/investing then there is no way you can fail. You are bound to succeed. These is what Investor Education is!
  
Our research team has prepared the following topics which must be known to every investors. We are preparing more such topics which will be imparted to Members via modes of pdf e-books, video tutorials, webinars, one to one phone call discussion education, seminar, and hard cover books.

 1.    What is Investment? What are the objectives of Investment? Devastating effect of inflation on your money. Why invest ? Why invest in Stocks ?
2.    The Concept of Compounding Rate of Interest. The Concept of inflation and investment simply explained. The history of returns on investment in Indian and World Stock markets. Why NOT investing in Stock market is Risky?
3.    Classification of Investment based on Duration. Meaning of Short Term, Mid Term, Long Term, and Longer Term investment.
4.    Classification of Asset Classes. Classification across asset classes and Classification within Equities. Ideal asset allocation within equities and across all asset classes.
5.    3 Essential Strategies for Investors.
6.    Portfolio Investing: The key to superior returns in markets.
7.    About Diversification and Concentration in investing.
8.    About Wealth Destruction in Stocks and How to avoid it. Aviation Sector Case study. SKS Micro case study.
9.    The art of making your Stock Investment cost zero.
10. Important things to know about IPOs. Why avoid most of the IPOs?
11. Classification of Money/investible money.
12. Why you must stay INVESTED in markets? The Cost of missing best days in markets.
13. What is Strategy based Advisory vs. Blind Tips.
14. What is Contrarian Investing? How it is useful to you?
15. About market correction and more
16.  Enter before these 10 crore investors & benefit from early bird investment in Indian Equity markets?
17. How handful of people ate cream of Indian Economic Growth and Why it is not their fault?
18. The most common mistakes of investors? Including irony etc…
19.  Why bubbles will continue to create in markets?
20.  How to overcome fear of falling markets?
21.  What is a Stock/Share? What is a Stock market?
22.  What is investing? What is trading? The difference between them.

Oct 12, 2013

9 QUESTIONS TO ASK AND THINGS TO CONSIDER BEFORE SELECTING YOUR ADVISOR

9 QUESTIONS TO ASK AND THINGS TO CONSIDER BEFORE SELECTING YOUR ADVISOR

  1. What risk-reward ratio will you give me?
  2. Please give me 10 investors and traders awareness and educational articles prepared by you.
  3. What is your educational qualification and experience in market of how many years?
  4. Are you providing advice and recommend only to trade or investment also? (one must recommend and suggest about long term investment also)
  5. Will you give me trading calls in segment which I tell you or will you tell me in which segments and sub segments to trade? (advisor must not let client to select their own segment and sub segment, because advisors must know better than clients who are seeking advice which segments and sub segments to trade and which not)
  6. Are you giving free trial or not? (true advisor will not give free trial. Reason is simple. He must be already having enough paid customers and not have time to give free tips. Also such advisor believes ‘free things has no value and quality thing always has value and are costly. He will ask you ‘How can you take judgment of my service in 2 day of sample calls? This is unreasonable’.)
  7. Do you give trades daily or there is no fixed frequency of it? (There should not be any frequency of trading calls giving, every day is not good for trading and no one knows which day will present best opportunity and which day worst. So, there should not be fixed frequency of giving calls.)
  8. What is your accuracy ratio? ( If the advisor says 70% or 90%, beware. Ask him about ‘WHAT NET PROFIT WILL YOU GIVE ME AT THE END OF SO AND SO NUMBER OF TRADES?’ Do not ask about accuracy ratio in %. It doesn’t make any sense and doesn’t give you any idea about accuracy either.)
  9. I have 1 lakh trading capital, what kind of exposure will you give me? (if the advisor say that he will make you trade on full exposure, then beware. A good advisor always cuts 30% from your trading exposure and then gives you positions on the rest of size.)

BEST OF LUCK WITH YOUR HUNT FOR A GOOD ADVISOR!

Oct 11, 2013

Navratri Discount Offer! Make this Dassehra Profitable for you!

Navratri Discount Offer! 
Make this NAVRATRI and Dassehra PROFITABLE with Megha Investments & Research
CALL ON 09376858284 or write on info@meghainvestments.com TO FIND OUT EXCITING DISCOUNT OFFERS .... on Trading and Investment Advisory Services.

Posted on 7:10:00 PM | Categories:

Oct 10, 2013

CMC LTD. BUY RECOMMENDATION FOR MEDIUM TERM INVESTORS AND TRADERS

CMC LTD is a TATA GROUP Company.
We recommend a buy for medium term traders and investors with a Target Price of Rs1606.
There is going to be a boost in next result announcements as well as the company is expected to give higher guidance for its export based services.
The promoter group can also announce a stake hike in the company.
All are source based information.
Technically speaking there is highly reliable cup and handle pattern which has been formed on the monthly chart as you can see in the image.

To get regular updates and alerts, become member here http://www.meghainvestments.com/contact_form.php
Posted on 7:55:00 PM | Categories:

Oct 6, 2013

14 ATTRIBUTES OF SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

14 ATTRIBUTES OF SUCCESSFUL TRADERS:

1.      View TA as a picture of where traders are lining up to buy and sell
2.      Approach trade no.5 with the same conviction as the previous 4 losing trades
3.      Use naked charts
4.      Comfortable making decisions with incomplete information
5.      Do not think of markets as expensive or cheap
6.      Aggressive with trade size when doing well and modest when not
7.      Realize the market will be open tomorrow
8.      Judge their trading success on anything but money
9.      Study human psychology – Use ful books are- The wisdom of crowds by James Surowiecki, the art of strategy by Avinash Dixt and Barry Nalebuff, Markets Mobs and Mayhem:A modern look at the Madness of Crowds by Robert Menschel, extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds by Charles Mckay.
10.  See themselves as market makers.  Think like a market maker and not just a trader
11.  Practice reading the right side of the chart, not the left.
12.  Always have an edge, don’t trade if you don’t
13.  Determine position size based on risk, not round numbers

14.  Play reaction, not the news

SOME TRADING SUCCESS MANTRAS BY RENOWNED TRADING COACH TODD MITCHEL

SOME TRADING SUCCESS MANTRAS BY RENOWNED TRADING COACH TODD MITCHEL:
Trade for skill, NOT the money=.  If you’re focused on the money aspect of trading…you’re not focused on the ‘trade’.  And SCARED MONEY NEVER WINS!
Concentrate on what you are trade.  Each market has personalities, habits and friends…get to know them all.
Focus on your executions.  Remember, every execution is a trade.  Money is valuable…don’t leave it on the table.
Remember that even the best of the best traders lose money.  Learn to accept your losses and move on to the next trade.  That’s just part of the business – you will NEVER win 100% of the time.
When in Doubt, Get Out (or Stay Out)!!  Deal with reality, if the market doesn’t behave like you expected, Get Out Immediately!
Learn the difference between gambling and trading: (1) Don’t trade just because it’s irrationally high or low, (2) No positions before major market announcements, (3) always use a protective stops,  and(4) always have a high probability trade set-up before putting on a trade.

Anticipate, identify and take full advantage of momentum in the market.

Oct 3, 2013

Report on DTH and Cable Network Industry in India

Present Situation of DTH and Cable Network Sector in India.
Brief idea of future prospects of DTH and Cable Network Companies in India
Small Report on  DTH and Cable Network Industry in India.


What we are going to talk about here is about the companies that brings the channels to our TV sets in our houses.
Please note that the content providers are different entities (like Star group, the ZEE group and other small TV channel maker companies also known as broadcasters). Also the DTH that is direct to home are companies that deliver channels to your TV sets by wireless technology i.e. dishes and the Cable Operator Companies (also known as MSO or Multi System Operators) are the companies who deliver channels to your TV Sets via wires/cables.
We will try to cover important points in a point by point manner to understand the basic and present situation of the sector in India and the future prospects of the same.
·         To begin with DTH is only 10 years old sector in India. While Cable Operators are there for more decades now. In the starting STAR TV tried to lauch DTH services in 1995-96 in India but government banned such operations on the ground of security issues. Then the government gave out the first license to DISH TV of ZEE GROUP in 2003 and kick started the regulated sector.
·         Presently there are 7 DTH operators namely, Dish TV, Tata Sky, Reliance Digital, Sun TV, Videocon D2H, Airtel Digital and DD dth.
·         The 7 DTH players have estimatedly put about USD4 billions or Rs.20000 to Rs.25000 crore investment in to the sector.
·         The players have mainly divided markets into rural, semiurban and urban areas.
·         DTH got boost in 2008 with the entry of 4 new players namely Sun, Airtel, Reliance and Videocon.
·         The maximum subscriber base growth was reported between 2007 and 2011 years at 4-5 times in that 4 years.
·         Dish TV is the largest player with over 4 crore subscribers as on march 2013. The subscribers base has risen 10 times in the last 6 years. 60% of its subscribers are in the top 20 cities of the country. Its share of the total Satelite Homes (Cable + DTH) is 30%. However it is still making losses. It is believed by most analysts and this writer as well that this company will act as a bellweather for the sector and when this company will turn profitable, it is most likely that one by one most players will start turning profitable as well.
·         The broadcasters like the DTH players over the cable operators. The broadcasters got Rs.2500 crore as subscription revenues from DTH players in 2012-13 which is 51% of the DTH plus Cable households put together.
·         The DTH players are expected to grab major pie of rural growth in satellite households as they will be fast rather than cable players who will have to make more capex and take time to expand simply because they have to put wires.
·         Presently the growth in subscription revenue of DTH and Cable operators is almost going hand in hand at Rs.2481 crore and Rs.2372 crore respectively for 2011; Rs.3020 and Rs. 2800 crore for 2012; and Rs 3625 crore and Rs.3758 crore respectively for 2013.
·         While the average incremental growth annually is clearly on the side of the DTH players at 1.05 crore. in 2011 vs.that of 26 lakhs of the Cable Operators; 1 crore and 46 lakh respectively in 2012 while 85 lakhs and 18 lakhs respectively in 2013. This is the best indicators to go for DTH guys for high growth expectations, among other factors such as transparency, global expertise, brand image, lower capex, fast penetration and efficient systems.
·         While the picture of ARPU (average revenue per user) paints a different picture but it has its explanations. In 2011 the ARPU growth for DTH players was 190 Rs. while that of Cable Firms was Rs.197 for the year 2011. The figures for 2012 were Rs.190 and 197 respectively for the year 2012 while the figures for 2013 are 197 and 208 for the year 2013. However, these figures should not be too much concerning to a DTH investor as most DTH players entered the show after 2008 and all of them took time to understand the business, implement the technologies and set up organizations functions mainly region wise strategies and marketing. While cable players still enjoyed advantage of having been doing business for several decades and easy penetration within the cities and periphery areas. I believe the ARPU of DTH guys will not take rise until one more decade as the industry will mature during this time and there will be rise in Cable players revenues via the incremental advantage of broadband service which will accrue to cable operators in next couple of years or 5.
·         It is said that the compulsory digitization drive by the government has taken away natural advantage that the DTH companies might have came to use. Now, the Cable players also had to digitize, and give set top boxes compulsorily. Many say that now Cable Operators also giving digital channels, why would one prefer DTH over Cable? The argument is right. But why do such comparision. It is resolved now that digital picture quality is not an issue of competition any more. To add only 15% of the Pay TV subscribers have been covered so far in the fist 2 phases of digitization.
·         About 30% of the incremental DTH customers are taking HD set top boxes. The ARPU for both DTH and Cable players will increase due to subscribers’ preference for HD viewing. This will increase profitability of the sector and rise margins or act as a stabilizer if due to competition some margins are squeezed.
·         The ARPU for DTH players presently is between Rs.160 and Rs.220. Any entry of new big player will only add to threats to this parameter to decline while the Cable guys will sing joyfully on that.
·         According to a study by Hong Kong based research firm Media Partners Asia the present DTH market in India is about 1.5 billion dollars and is expected to touch 3.9 billions by 2017 and 5.3 billion by 2020. These are annual figures. The research further states that the active DTH subscriber base in estimated to grow from 3.24 crore in 2012 to 7.66 crore in 2020 and 6.38 crore in 2017. The report also stated that Dish TV leads the market with 27% of additions in subscriber base. Tata Sky and Airtel Digital TV have 19 and 18% market share respectively.
·         Advantage to Cable Operators: 4G and highspeed internet broadband service offering in near future will be an additional income with cable operators. This benefit is not available to DTH operators. While DTH operators have advantage of corporate culture, brand image, corporate governance (untrust of broadcasters and content developers on cable operators due to lower subscriber base reporting), low capex, benefit of centralize system, internations joint ventures and tie ups, access to large funds and so on.
·         This author believes that the stock prices of DTH players will outperform that of cable operators in the mid to log run. Long term investors should prefer DTH player over cable operators. One can also go for dish tv and siti cable network ltd which are both sister concerns and subsidiary of Zee Group. Do not expect huge return from this sector in the short time. However, investment at every decline in right company’s stock is advisable for exposure in this sector. Also mind that you should keep separate exposure to broadcasters and TV channel firms apart from exposure to operator firms.
·         There are presently 2 listed DTH players namely Dish TV, and Sun TV Network Ltd while there are 6 cable operators listed which are Siti Cable Network Ltd, Den Networks Ltd, Hathway Cable and Datacom Ltd, Hathway Bhawani Cabletel and Datacom Ltd, Sea TV Network Ltd, and Hindjua Ventures Ltd which is the holding company of Indusind Media and Communications Ltd running cable network across india under InCable brand name.
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