Sep 26, 2013

NATURAL GAS FUTURES: IMMEDIATE, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM OUTLOOK

NATURAL GAS FUTURES: BULLISH IN MEDIUM TERM TO LONG TERM, BEARISH ON IMMEDIATE BASIS

NATURAL GAS IS A STABLE COMMODITY TO TRADE IN COMPARISON. THE MOST STABLE COMMODITY IS NICKEL, FOLLOWED BY COPPER THEN BASE METALS COMMODITIES, THEN CRUDE OIL, AND GOLD AND SILVER AT LAST ON MCX.
HOWEVER, IT GIVES 2-3 MOVES IN A MONTH WHICH ARE ABOUT 5-10% IN 2-3 TRADING DAYS IN A RAW.


THE OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS ON THE IMMEDIATE BASIS IS BEARISH. IT IS TRADING AROUND 221. IT CAN GO DOWN TO TEST 205 LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BREAK 200. EVEN IF IT BREAKS THEN ALSO IT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BACK RAPIDLY.
IT WAS A VERY GOOD LEVEL TO SHORT ABOVE 230 ON WHICH IT WAS TRADING FOR LAST FEW TRADING SESSIONS.
HOWEVER, RISK TAKERS CAN STILL SHORT AROUND CURRENT LEVELS OR PATIENCE TRADERS CAN WAIT FOR IT TO AGAIN COME AROUND 230 LEVELS.
THIS IS TYPICALLY NOT A COMMODITY THAT YOU CAN CORRELATE OR TRACK VIS-A-VIS THE DOLLAR INDEX, THE RUPEE MOVE AGAINST DOLLAR AND EVEN TRY TO CORRELATE WITH CRUDE OIL.
THIS IS A COMMODITY WITH HIGHLY COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN PRESENT GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL SET UP.
THIS COMMODITY IS NOT LIKELY TO GIVE BREAK OUT EASILY FOR FORMATION OF NEW RANGES. IT IS EASIER TO TRADE NEAR THE LOW AND HIGH ENDS AND TOUGH IN BETWEEN.

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