Sep 26, 2017

Important Points For Traders From Mark Douglas's 'Trading In The Zone'

Important Points For Traders From Mark Douglas's 'Trading In The Zone'

Mark Douglas has written one of the best books on the psychology of successful trading.  In his book, Trading In the Zone, Douglas discusses how a trader can begin to eliminate the emotional risk of trading via a probabilistic mind-set.  A probabilistic mind-set is essential to understanding the market because the market is “always communicating in probabilities.”  In other words, the market does not speak Chinese, English, Russian, or bullish or bearish…it speaks probability.  If we plan on living in China we need to learn Chinese, if Russia then Russian.  If we plan on making a living in the market then we need to learn the language of probability.  A probabilistic mind-set consists of internalizing the following fundamental truths:

1.  Anything can happen. Or as I like to say, anything can happen…and often does. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what we think it should do and when we begin to doubt the market it does exactly what we once thought it should do.  Get it?
2.  You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Trading is not about being right in our arrogant predictions, it is about making money.  We are never going to be able to predict what will happen next either in the market or in life so let’s just get over it once and for all.
3.  There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. Trading is like tossing a coin: we can have five wins in a row or five losses;  we could win one lose one.  Wins and losses are random so do not bet the farm or the crops.
4.  An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Call it what we will but if we have a system, a methodology, a strategy, an edge for locating a trade then we have found an indication of a high probability circumstance that has been historically proven to repeat itself over and over again and will probably do so in the future.
5.  Every moment in the market is unique. No matter how many times we have traded an edge the outcome can be different this time and no matter how perfectly matched this pattern is with the last one, this one is truly unique if for no other reason than in this market the participants are not the same as in the last one.  The market is too diverse and too fluid to be put in a box, wrapped up and sold to the next consumer.


ARTSON ENGINEERING LTD. A Clear Cut View For Investors & Traders September 2017

ARTSON ENGINEERING LTD.
CMP – 69
RECOMMENDATION: BUY FOR MID TO LONG TERM

The first point in favour is that it is a wholly owned tata group subsicidiary with Tata Projects Ltd holding 75% and 25% with public.
Second point is that it is ruling at PE of below 10, while its most of peers are ruling around PE of 20. We believe, and as India is entering into altogether new era of growth where engineering EPC services will be definitely in lot of demand, ARTSON due to its patronage and experience will have a lot of work to do. It has small market cap of about 250 cr while topline of 100 crore. On the profitability and topline growth the company lacks attraction but due to a small about 4 crore equity, the stock price usually tend to fire up terrifically in case of big order win or spike in profitability or some corporate development. Company is not paying diviend, so don’t buy for dividend. 
TECHNICAL PICTURE: as you can see in the chart, the price has been gyrating between 20 and 100 for over last 20 years, we believe that Indian stock market has entered into new leg of upsurge and this stock can deserve a place in a long term owners portfolio who wishes to just strike gold at the same time remaining on the safe side as the most benefitial investment niche to buy in a good company at a good price is that if it falls you buy more and that too without fear in fact with pleasure, as you know that you are doing the right thing. This stock clearly belongs to the evid portfolio investor.

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