Nov 18, 2017

Ed Seykota Wisdom Words l Best Selected Quotes From Legendary Trader Of Our Time

Ed Seykota Wisdom Words
Ed Seykota is one of our times top known stock market or trading legend. Here are best quotes on various topics from many books, and his interviews.

Markets
The markets are the same now as they were five or ten years ago because they keep changing-just like they did then.
Short-Term Trading
The elements of good trading are cutting losses, cutting losses, and cutting losses.
Outcomes
Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.
I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it.

Market Trends
The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.
Charles Faulkner tells a story about Seykota’s finely honed intuition when it comes to trading: I am reminded of an experience that Ed Seykota shared with a group. He said that when he looks at a market, that everyone else thinks has exhausted its up trend, that is often when he likes to get in. When I asked him how he made this determination, he said he just puts the chart on the other side of the room and if it looked like it was going up, then he would buy it… Of course this trade was seen through the eyes of someone with deep insight into the market behavior.
Predicting the Future
If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right.
Trading
To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading.
Here’s the essence of risk management: Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful. If there is no such amount, don’t play.
Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top.
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your prolem is not in the math. There is no math to ge you out of having to experience uncertainty.
It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.
System Trading
Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.
Feelings
Our work is not so much to treat or to cure feelings, as to accept and celebrate them. This is a critical difference.
Fundamentalists figure things out and anticipate change. Trend followers join the trend of the moment. Fundamentalists try to solve their feelings. Trend followers join their feelings and observe them evolve and dis-solve. The feelings we accept and enjoy rarely interfere with trading. Trying to treat or cure feelings adds mass.
When a feeling dissolves, it ceases to be your enemy and begins to be one of your allies.
Technology and Uncertainty
Advanced technology for analyzing the markets is interesting, entertaining, distracting, and even counter-productive to coming to terms with emotional reactions to uncertainty and volatility.
By the way, if you want something certain about the markets, uncertainty itself almost certainly happens to be one of the most certain things about the markets.
Experience Feelings
Feelings naturally appear during trading. The feelings we don’t like seem to have roots deep in our unresolved issues. Somehow they get stuck and do not finish passing through, and can cloud the judgment and interfere with trading. The feelings we do like seem to pass through quickly without much trace.
I suggest getting to know your feelings, by experiencing them, expressing them, letting them pass through and finding out they are pretty much all good ones.
Jet engines work best when they are open at both ends.
Feeling Stuck
The feelings you don’t like don’t pass through. Feelings you do like pass through. To get feelings to flow through, and not interfere with your trading, learn to like them. Part of that comes from experience, part with identifying their positive intentions. For example, consider the feeling of being lonely and having others tell you are wrong. When the market is trending nicely, it’s a feeling traders might especially enjoy, even use as a signal to add to a position.
The feeling of everyone telling you that you are right, might actually be the scary one.
Knowledge
There is nothing quite like admitting you don’t know anything to make people think you know something.
Success
In your recipe for success, don’t forget commitment – and a deep belief in the inevitability of your success.
Tools
Define your project and the right tool appears. Questions about the tools indicate uncertainty about the project.
Avoiding Pain
Embracing the moment, celebrating the pain, and finding the positive intention, tends to transform pain into wisdom. Trying to avoid the bad stuff only tends to institutionalize it, and miss it’s positive intention.
If running out of gas is a bad feeling, you might be tempted to put masking tape over your fuel gauge … and miss out on the positive intention of that information.
Trading
Trends are markets having aha moments.
What you believe is true for you.
In futures trading, the short and long positions define each other.
A fish at one with the water sees nothing between himself and his prey. A trader at one with his feelings feels nothing between himself and executing his method.
Traders and Surfers
It’s all about sticking to your plan and experiencing feelings as they arise. If you are unwilling to feel your feelings, the temptation is to avoid them by jumping off your system.
Traders and Surfers both have to deal with feelings of missing out on the small ones, until the big one comes along. They also have to deal with feelings of staying with the big one.
Feelings you Dislike
Feelings you dislike, grow stronger; the feelings you like disappear, leaving you wiser.
The turning point in the Process occurs when you become willing to feel a historically unpleasant feeling.
Positive Intention
You might consider the positive intention of anger – hint: the positive intention of thirst is to make sure you have enough water in your body.
Children
Children seem open to feel whatever they feel. Their moods change from moment to moment as they keep experiencing their feelings. As we mature, we learn to contain our feelings.
Emotions
Thinking about emotions, trying to control emotions, talking about emotions … are all different from experiencing emotions.
Losses
Lungs Lose Air about Half the Time.
Fear
The experience of fear varies from person to person. The positive intention of fear is risk control.
Fred(Your subconscious mind) finds ways to get the fearless to feel fear.
Hard Work
Hard Work does not Guarantee Profit and one man’s hard work might be another man’s recreation
Finding your calling
Finding your calling is a continuation of the process of unifying Fred(unconcious mind) and CM(concious mind).
As we clear out our personal pains and dramas, our issues and feelings tend to turn outward, toward others, toward building community, being of service, locating and expressing our talents and gifts …
Things you Measure Tend to Improve.
Communication
Becoming a better trader and becoming a better person seem to go together.
The Most Direct Communications require no words. They require only a good receiver.
Most people are really pretty agreeable, until you try to change them.
Your Experience of Others may depend on the degree to which you support or resist their mission, as they see it.
Responsibility
The responsibility model, in which you intend a result and assume responsibility, seems to provide a better fit for real-life situations.
World Peace
We are all here on this planet, temporarily, sharing some room with each other. Some chop wood and some carry water.
How about we help each other a bit more, fight a bit less.
Partner
When you are willing to experience your mate just the way she is, she loses her power to control you and she becomes your ally.
Your judgment of her judgment empowers it.

RALLIS INDIA LTD. Mid & Long Term View Fundamental Take For Investors 18 November 2017

RALLIS INDIA LTD.
CMP : 229.
VIEW : MID AND LONG TERM.
STRATEGY AND UPDATES: NA

FUNDAMENTAL COMMENTARY :
This company having 1500 crore topline and not much to pitch for the bottomline is a Tata Group firm and a subsidiary with 50% plus ownership of Tata Chemical. It is mainly in agrichem business. We are more interested in not value investing but in ancilliary valuation attached to it. Clearly if the company starts showing robust EPS it will be an extra boost and become cause of fast movement in the stock price. Just look at the portfolio of Tata Chem and you will be amazed in how many businesses it is and how many over the counter products and segments it has as well as industry facing production capacity it delivers in varied chemical segments and subsegments. It has brand products ranging from tata salt (that too of four types), spices, an RO machine, several brand name products in agri fertilizer and sub space, some other food items apart from spices, cement  (yes!) and so on. We have done a thorough research and even we had previously recommended this stock. We still have a buy call on this stock with a lot upside. The way Cyrus Mistry has turned around and restructured this particular company of Tatas is amazing (poor Cyrus Mistry still sacked!). Anyways, the synergy and underlying relation with Rallis will help Rallis stock (not necessarily the firm may be! Yes, that how stock market works, not alwyas 2+2=4 here!!). Also, the peer groups, the likes of Excel cropcare, UPL, etc are priced much then Rallis.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: 
The stock started upmove in 2009 from 40 Rs. in 2009. It surged a high of Rs.150 in over next three 4 years which is reasonable. Since then in last four years it has not done much except making a high of 250 around and languishing between this 150 and 250 levels which is apt for a relatively unknown firm of India's biggest industrial group in not so fancy business sector. This stock is not for fast returns but definitely for good returns. WE expect the stock will eventually breakout above 260 and some corporat development will make it sustain the upmove and further investing interest shall give the stock a nice bull market rally towards 500 plus. Time horizons etc...? for members only.
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